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The “spy balloon war” between the United States and China is reaching dangerous new heights after a white Chinese balloon the size of three buses crossing US airspace was shot down over the Atlantic on Feb. 4.

The dramatic image of the balloon being shot down has been imprinted in the minds of Americans as a vivid symbol of the “Chinese threat.” On Friday and Saturday, US fighter jets shot down additional “unidentified” high-altitude objects over Alaska and Canada.

Since the 2010s, China’s Academy of Military Sciences and People’s Liberation Army have been conducting high-altitude balloons and stratospheric airship programs for the purpose of reconnaissance in near space, 19 to 96 kilometers from Earth’s surface.

This topic has also received considerable coverage in China’s state-run media.

But considering that China operates over 500 cutting-edge satellites, why would it bother with spy balloons, a relic of the Cold War period? Some possible reasons are that balloons are cheap, are not easily detected by radar, and can hover over a target for a long time while conducting surveillance.

It goes without saying that both Washington and Beijing are waging a fierce information war using as many hidden assets as possible.

The question is why China would have brazenly sent a spy balloon into US airspace at this precise moment. China has been working to stabilize relations with the US since Xi Jinping clinched his third term as Chinese president at the end of last year and had put considerable effort into arranging for US Secretary of State Antony Blinken to visit the country. But that visit was called off over the spy balloon incident.

Some analysts think the incident was orchestrated without Xi’s knowledge by hardliners in the Chinese army opposed to improving relations with the US, but that’s not likely given Xi’s firm grip on power and his control over the military.

A more persuasive explanation is that the balloon malfunctioned. China has designed its balloons to conduct surveillance at a much higher altitude, but a technical problem caused this balloon to fly much lower than normal, as the theory goes.

“Artificial intelligence has made it possible for a balloon, just by reading the changes in the air around it, to adjust its altitude,” reported the AFP, paraphrasing William Kim, a specialist at the Marathon Initiative think tank.

“The balloons usually operate at altitudes of 65,000-100,000 feet (20-30 kilometers), and this one is at around 46,000 feet.”

China’s failed operation has put it in an awkward position. The US briefed 40 countries, including South Korea, about China’s balloon spying, which it says is just part of a secret surveillance program it has operated around the world for decades. These disclosures strengthen its “anti-China alliance.”

While China claimed the balloon was an observational instrument operated by a private company, a great deal of evidence indicates that it was military-grade. With mud on its face, China has lashed out at the US for “overreacting” and “waging an information war,” but it’s also keeping a tight rein on its domestic internet to prevent an outburst of public nationalism.

As it manages the fallout from the incident, China is likely waiting for a chance to resume dialogue.

Joe Biden and Xi Jinping have far too much on their plates — including Taiwan, Ukraine, the economy, and nuclear arms control — for them to keep squabbling over a balloon. But a hard line on China is coalescing in the realms of American politics and public opinion reminiscent of the “Red Scare” over the Soviet Union during the Cold War.

It’s also unclear which way China’s ultranationalist currents will move. There’s no telling whether Blinken will be able to reschedule his trip to China.

By Park Min-hee, editorial writer

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