[News analysis] Moon and Abe have rekindled dialogue, but challenges remain

President Moon Jae-in speaks at a South Korea-Japan summit at the Shangri-La Hotel in the Shijicheng (Century City) area of Chengdu, Sichuan Province, China. (Blue House photo pool)

S. Korea and Japan are likely to speed up deliberations about export controls, but attempts to resolve the forced labor issue will probably drag on

President Moon Jae-in speaks at a South Korea-Japan summit at the Shangri-La Hotel in the Shijicheng (Century City) area of Chengdu, Sichuan Province, China. (Blue House photo pool)

The summit between South Korean President Moon Jae-in and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on Dec. 24 didn’t culminate in a specific agreement about rescinding Japan’s export controls. Even so, the two leaders agreed on the need to sustain the spark of dialogue, which hasn’t been easy to resume. For the time being, the two countries are expected to focus on discussing ways to resolve pending issues, including the victims of forced labor during Japan’s colonial occupation of Korea and Japan’s export controls on South Korea, but numerous challenges are still on the horizon.

Considering how sharply divided the two countries were just a couple of months ago, this summit, the first in a year and three months, can be regarded as an important turning point toward restoring their relationship. “Since there’s been such a huge gap in South Korea and Japan’s attitudes, the very fact we’ve returned to the mood of dialogue is a positive sign,” said Jin Chang-su, a senior researcher at the Sejong Institute.

This shift in focus to dialogue by Moon and Abe apparently derives from their belief that allowing their dispute to fester would only harm both sides. During their unyielding altercation ― Japan retaliated to the South Korean Supreme Court’s ruling about forced labor by imposing export controls on South Korea, and South Korea then announced it would scrap its GSOMIA information-sharing pact with Japan ― they not only suffered economic damage but also impacted security in East Asia. Analysts attribute Abe’s actions to a growing sense of desperation: his approval rating has dipped below 40% in the wake of a cherry blossom-viewing party, which he allegedly exploited for his own personal interests, and he also needs to repair relations with South Korea before next year’s Olympic Games, which will be held in Tokyo in July.

While the South Korean and Japanese governments will speed up their ongoing deliberations about the export controls, a solution to the forced labor issue is likely to take some time, because of the gulf separating the two sides’ positions. On Tuesday, the two sides remained sharply divided on that issue. “The two leaders confirmed the differences in their opinion about the forced labor issue,” said Blue House spokesperson Ko Min-jung.

In a press conference after the summit, Abe stressed, “The relationship between our two countries cannot stand unless the Japan-South Korea Treaty on Basic Relations and Claims Settlement Agreement at the foundation of its normalization are upheld.”

“I asked President Moon for South Korea to take responsibility for presenting a solution [on the forced labor mobilization issue],” he explained. The call for South Korea to “take responsibility” for resolving the matter could be seen as expressing an even stronger stance than Tokyo has to date. At the same time, the two sides also agreed on a dialogue-based approach to resolving the issue of forced labor mobilization survivors.

“With the forced labor mobilization issue, the key question is how much the South Korean survivors are willing to accept,” Jin Chang-su said. “National Assembly Speaker Moon Hee-sang has proposed a bill, but it is opposed by the victims, so that can’t be a solution,” he added. “South Korea and Japan need to hold discussions with the aim of resolving the issue,” he suggested.

The time left to hold dialogue toward resolving the export control and forced labor mobilization issues is not unlimited. Weighing on both the South Korean and Japanese sides is the fact that liquidation (disposal) procedures are currently under way on Japanese company assets seized in accordance with the South Korean Supreme Court’s ruling ordering compensation to survivors of forced labor mobilization. The Pohang branch of Daegu District Court began procedures in May to order the liquidation of Nippon Steel assets.

“As long as the risk posed by the Japanese company liquidation doesn’t come to pass, we should start to see a resolution on the export control issue sometime around late January of next year,” a senior South Korean government official predicted.

But the South Korean government has stated that it intends to review the GSOMIA termination issue if Japan continues putting off a resolution on the export controls. Some observers are also arguing the need for the operation of different channels for a fundamental resolution of historical issues between the two sides.

Nam Ki-jeong, a professor at the Seoul National University Institute for Japanese studies, said, “South Korea and Japan differ in their interpretations on the 1965 Claims Settlement Agreement, including the issues of the illegality of colonization and the claim rights of individuals, which has led to repeated conflicts over historical issues.”

“We need to open the door to a resolution on historical matters by eliminating the differences in interpretation with the participation of South Korea and Japanese historical and legal experts, along with experts from a third country if possible,” he suggested.

By Kim So-youn, staff reporter and Cho Ki-weon, Tokyo correspondent

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