[New analysis] Unclear how Cho Kuk’s resignation affect Moon’s approval ratings

South Korean President Moon Jae-in and first lady Kim Jung-sook during a reception for foreign diplomats at the Blue House on Oct. 18.

Progressive voters in their 30s seem to hold Moon accountable for Cho’s resignation

South Korean President Moon Jae-in and first lady Kim Jung-sook during a reception for foreign diplomats at the Blue House on Oct. 18.

It’s unclear how exactly the resignation of Justice Minister Cho Kuk has affected public opinion toward the current South Korean administration. An opinion poll published by Gallup Korea on Oct. 18 shows President Moon Jae-in’s job approval rating dropping to 39%, the lowest point since his inauguration. That’s the exact opposite of the rebound reported in a Real Meter poll released the previous day.

In its analysis of the findings, Gallup Korea attributed the decline of four percentage points in Moon’s governance approval rating from the week before to “disappointment with Cho’s resignation among supporters.” Its conclusion was that voters who strongly sympathized with the candlelight demonstrations in public squares calling to “protect” Cho held Moon politically accountable for his eventual resignation. As a basis for its interpretation, Gallup Korea noted large slides in positive ratings of Moon’s job performance among respondents in the Honam region and in their 30s, both segments that showed strong support for keeping Cho in place. In the space of a week, positive ratings fell from 76% to 67% for Honam and from 60% to 46% for people in their 30s.

But the opposite analysis has also been suggested. Park Seong-min, president of the political consultancy Min, said, “We also have to look at the reasons positive ratings have fallen by so much among moderates. Other influences could have included disappointment over Cho Kuk’s resignation and the lack of any changes in the ruling party afterwards, as well as the ‘blacked out’ soccer match that took place in North Korea.” Indeed, positive ratings among moderates who did not support Cho dropped by 10 percentage points from 46% to 36% over the past week. Among unaffiliated respondents who did not identify with any political party, the percentage of positive assessments dipped from 25% to 19%.

Gallup reports decline; Real Meter reports rise

Other observers suggested it is still too early to reach any conclusions about overall opinion trends. Survey findings released by Real Meter on Oct. 17 showed a 45.5% approval rating for President Moon’s job performance, up 4.1 percentage points from the week before. The numbers showed his ratings halting their two-week slide and returning to the mid-40% range. Negative assessments were down 4.5 percentage points to 51.6%. The trend was attributed mainly to the loss of moderate support being stanched in the wake of Cho’s resignation.

“The differences with the Gallup survey [findings] may be attributed to the relatively large number of responses from the ‘high-engagement’ segment with a strong interest in politics,” a Real Meter official suggested.

The Blue House responded cautiously to the survey findings. In a meeting with reporters, a key official said, “I have to wonder whether it’s right to react so sensitively and change the direction [of the governance approach] whenever approval ratings rise or fall.”

“We’re not going to fixate on [swings in support],” the official insisted.

Yoon Tae-gon, director of the political analysis office for the agenda and strategy group Moa, said, “What the opinion survey findings show is that Cho Kuk’s resignation alone is not enough to turn opinion in a positive direction.”

“The response from the Blue House and ruling party going forward is going to be crucial,” Yoon suggested.

By Kim Mi-na, staff reporter

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