By Suh Jae-jung, professor of political science and international relations at the International Christian University in Tokyo

“Fuck the EU.”

That was the remark from US Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Victoria Nuland in an intercepted telephone conversation from 2014.

Her comments were a response to the fact that while she had gotten the agreement of then-UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon in a conversation with UN Under-Secretary-General for Political Affairs Jeffrey Feltman, things were not going as hoped with the European Union.

The person Nuland was speaking to was the US ambassador to Ukraine, Geoffrey Pyatt. He replied, “We want to try to get somebody with an international personality to come out here and help to midwife this thing.”

Nuland had already been consulting with Jake Sullivan, who was the national security advisor to then-Vice President Joe Biden.

“Sullivan’s come back to me VFR [directly] saying you need Biden,” she said, adding that Biden was “willing.”

At the time in February 2014, the situation in Ukraine was volatile. The Euromaidan protests, which had begun toward the end of 2013, were spreading like wildfire.

The starting point had to do with relations with the EU. Embers that had been burning underground were dredged up to the surface when the administration of then-Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych indefinitely postponed the signing of an association agreement and free trade agreement with the EU.

This touched off demonstrations by pro-Western residents of western Ukraine, who had a long history. Things escalated when the police used harsh tactics to suppress them.

Angered by the administration’s brutality, citizens rose up all around, and the demonstrations became increasingly violent. In early 2014, they began taking on an anti-administration aspect and escalated into a movement to occupy the administration building and parliament.

That was when it happened. The phone call between Nuland Pyatt took place just as it was becoming apparent that the pro-Russian Yanukovych administration was losing its footing and the oppositions’ activities were intensifying.

The two of them talked about what would come after the demonstrations, making references to “this scenario.” They shared that they were in communication with opposition leaders. They discussed who should not be part of the administration and who fit well with the “scenario.”

They dismissed the EU as not especially helpful in pursuing the plan. They had enlisted the cooperation of the UN. At the same time, they agreed that the situation called for the involvement of an “international personality” higher up than them.

That personality was then-Vice President Joe Biden — and he was willing to get involved.

It has not yet been disclosed how the US administration proceeded after the conversation. But we all know what ended up happening in Ukraine: on Feb. 18, 2014, the demonstrations erupted into a nationwide uprising.

The following day, a cease-fire agreement was reached by the administration, the opposition, and the demonstrators. But the agreement was rejected by the far-right nationalist sects and demonstrators affiliated with the All-Ukrainian Union “Freedom” (also known as Svoboda).

Those figures brandished weapons as they seized central Kyiv and the parliament building by force. With his life in danger, Yanukovych went into hiding, while the ruling party fled parliament. Now under opposition control, the Verkhovna Rada impeached Yanukovych and decided to hold an early election in May.

This sudden regime change could well be called a coup d’etat. A pro-Russian administration was driven out, and a pro-Western one took its place.

But then an outcry began erupting from the pro-Russian contingent. The Republic of Crimea declared independence, and Donetsk and Luhansk followed suit. The Ukrainian government put together new defense forces and attacked. The civil war in Ukraine was escalating.

The US government’s position was clear and firm. In 2014, it began providing Ukraine with what has amounted to US$2 billion in military aid. It was not especially concerned that the defense forces included the neo-Nazi Azov regiment, and military support did not stop even after Congress banned assistance to them.

Pyatt showed no hesitation about referring to the Euromaidan movement as a pro-democracy movement, or to their opponents as “terrorists.” He was never interested in reaching a peaceful resolution through negotiations.

The “coup” that took place in Ukraine in 2014 left Moscow in a bind. If it did not take any action, that would mean a pro-Western administration in Ukraine, with Western influence extending right up to Russia’s doorstep. But a military intervention would incur massive costs.

Russian President Vladimir Putin came up with a clever solution: annex only the Crimean Peninsula, while avoiding any further escalation.

But after Biden took office as president, his administration immediately decided to provide US$650 million in support to the Ukrainian government. Nuland, one of the orchestrators of the Ukrainian coup, was promoted to under-secretary of state for political affairs under the Biden administration. Sullivan, who had coordinated with her, became Biden’s national security advisor.

The Ukrainian government’s attacks on pro-Russian elements intensified, and its pro-Western activities gained momentum. Putin suggested a resolution, but no real negotiations were ever attempted. Backed into a corner, Putin has opted for war.

Is the war a safe play for the US or a blunder? And what are the implications for the Korean Peninsula?

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]