For several days in a row, the American press has been running stories citing intelligence officials who believe that North Korea does not really intend to shut down its nuclear weapons and missile programs. With US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo scheduled to visit North Korea on July 5, there are several ways to interpret the intentions and background of this series of reports.

A CNN report on July 2 quoted US government officials as saying the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) “believes that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has no intention of engaging in a full denuclearization program.”

The DIA was also reported as circulating its report to other intelligence agencies to see if they agreed with its conclusions, which were based on satellite imagery, electronic interceptions, and human intelligence.

The report echoed a similar one from the Washington Post on June 30 claiming the DIA had determined Pyongyang was attempting to conceal warheads and related facilities even after a North Korea-US summit. The Wall Street Journal reported on July 1 that an analysis of recent satellite imagery by the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey’s James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies confirmed the completion of external construction on a solid-fuel ballistic missile factory in the North Korean city of Hamhung.

The US government has refrained from officially confirming the reports, saying only that it was “looking into matters” with North Korea. In a July 1 appearance on CBS, White House National Security Advisor John Bolton said he did not want to “comment on anything related to intelligence,” commenting only that the US was using its fullest capacities to determine what North Korea was doing.

The series of reports citing “government officials” suggests some differences of opinion within the administration. One former White House National Security Council (NSC) official was quoted by CNN as saying the intelligence community “doesn't assess that Kim Jong Un is acting in good faith.”

“They're probably fed up with the fact that [Trump] and Pompeo keep publicly touting their trust in [the Kim Jong-un regime],” the former official also said. The implication is that administration hardliners disgruntled over the course taken by Trump and Pompeo have been leaking intelligence to send the message that Kim “hasn’t changed.”

Doubts over accuracy of intelligence reports

The accuracy of the intelligence has also been questioned. German missile expert Markus Schiller disputed the reports of the Hamhung missile factory’s expansion, telling Radio Free Asia that satellite images showed Kim visiting the site in Aug. 2017.

“He was already talking about expanding the factory back then, and it was presented as producing carbon fiber composites,” Schiller said.

“It could be a facility for producing propellant canisters, but it’s not a missile manufacturing factory,” he concluded.

The reporters could conversely be seen as offering “supporting fire” to increase Pompeo’s bargaining strength as he visits North Korea for the third time. They could have a warning effect, sending the message to Pyongyang that it should not try to conceal nuclear weapons, materials, or facilities that could be clearly detected through satellite imagery and electronic interceptions.

Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) director David Albright told RFA the message may have been intended as a “warning” to North Korea from the US government. But a source quoted in CNN predicted that Kim may be less likely to cooperate with the US if “he thinks that, no matter what he does, the US has already prejudged him to be untrustworthy.”

By Hwang Joon-bum and Kim Ji-eun, staff reporters

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